Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 39.436176 42.875015 46.683009 51.254877 56.653320 62.901911 70.799910
2025-08-03 34.526720 38.970413 44.237132 51.080898 59.968065 71.482848 88.229665
2025-08-10 31.275396 36.072556 41.991444 50.070967 61.243826 76.930770 102.401566
2025-08-17 28.831069 33.774124 40.054662 48.952720 61.882461 81.291804 116.096881
2025-08-24 27.009212 32.040276 38.588189 48.159930 62.681902 85.854844 131.672819
2025-08-31 25.505335 30.569190 37.292097 47.383090 63.279315 90.094712 148.426754
2025-09-07 24.824772 30.119738 37.319372 48.483002 66.927620 100.428607 184.127197
2025-09-14 23.783963 29.094054 36.431650 48.067189 67.954064 106.119683 212.908990
2025-09-21 22.660671 27.880113 35.175348 46.931741 67.531728 108.758610 235.366458
2025-09-28 21.633318 26.742751 33.952133 45.728110 66.804655 110.564125 257.196882
2025-10-05 21.487766 26.839045 34.548225 47.525936 71.909159 127.193524 361.587143
2025-10-12 21.150941 26.634759 34.666633 48.522817 75.639802 142.145178 504.759721
2025-10-19 20.748856 26.335480 34.650993 49.349812 79.341791 159.449538 773.646171
2025-10-26 20.148478 25.713342 34.089969 49.153651 80.835102 171.174472 1141.886401
2025-11-02 19.442154 24.898081 33.169777 48.210693 80.479871 176.703832 1562.984972
2025-11-09 18.766055 24.100199 32.234751 47.162030 79.723504 180.627215 2178.190341
2025-11-16 18.197026 23.442270 31.493204 46.418122 79.589921 187.088257 3702.850022
2025-11-23 17.668203 22.825515 30.788364 45.688625 79.388079 193.395325 8268.151600
2025-11-30 17.504238 22.760746 30.987827 46.721348 83.812469 223.620592 NaN
2025-12-07 17.092187 22.294317 30.489938 46.331059 84.458895 236.677922 NaN
2025-12-14 16.584237 21.661647 29.684143 45.264541 83.117862 238.341550 NaN
2025-12-21 16.090372 21.037221 28.869674 44.132740 81.465546 237.579521 NaN
2025-12-28 16.102276 21.206570 29.414272 45.822805 88.089600 295.650361 NaN